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Public Sector: Industrial Disputes

Question for Treasury

UIN 108330, tabled on 12 December 2022

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will publish the calculations for the Prime Minister’s statement that public sector pay demands would cost each household £1,000.

Answered on

15 December 2022

The £1000 per household figure is derived from dividing the total cost of an 11% increase in pay for all public sector workers in the UK in 2023/24 (£28bn) by the ONS’ latest estimate of the number of households in the UK (28.1m).

The use of an 11.1% increase in pay for all public sector workers as a total cost figure is in line with the calls of many unions for inflation-matching awards (the Consumer Prices Index in the 12 months to October 2022 was 11.1%. This was the most recent data point for CPI inflation at the time the calculation was made).

The total cost estimate of £28bn is derived using a costings model which takes outturn data on the total public sector pay bill for 2021/22, applies awards from 2022/23 (the impacts of which on pay bill per head were in the region of 5%) and then adds an 11.1% award in 2023/24. The model also applies standard assumptions on pay drift and workforce growth.

Answered by

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