To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, what assessment has he made of the impact on the North East environment & food production of global warming of (a) 1.5 per cent, (b) 1.8 per cent, (c) 2.4 per cent and (d) 4 per cent.
16 November 2021
I have assumed the question is asking about warming above pre-industrial levels of 1.5, 1.8, 2.4 and 4 degrees C, rather than percentage change.
The Climate Change Committee's (CCC) Climate Risk Independent Assessment (statutory advice to Government) was published in June 2021. It provides detailed insight into risks and opportunities to the UK, focusing on the impacts of 2 and 4 degrees of global warming. The assessment has identified 61 risks and opportunities, 18 of which are for the natural environment, including domestic food production.
The CCC's assessment does not break down risks to below a national scale. Adaptation action must however be considered at a local scale to account for local differences in climate impacts. This is a research priority and we are working closely with the scientific community to better understand local risks, alongside developing and improving climate services to allow government, businesses, and communities to take the steps necessary for enhancing resilience.
More broadly, the UK Climate Projections provide the most up-to-date assessment of how the UK climate may change in the future. In 2018, the Met Office Hadley Centre released the latest set of Defra commissioned UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). The UKCP18 local climate projections were launched in 2019 and have a horizontal spatial resolution of 2.2km. These projections will be available to inform future UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, providing the most detailed ever local level data for the UK.