Skip to main content


Question for Department of Health and Social Care

UIN 109321, tabled on 30 October 2020

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what steps he has taken to validate epidemiological models of covid-19 (a) cases, (b) hospitalisations and (c) deaths against observed data throughout 2020; and if he will make a statement.

This answer is the replacement for a previous holding answer.

Answered on

2 December 2020

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific advice to support the Government response to COVID-19. In fulfilling this role SAGE considers a wide range of infectious disease modelling.

Part of this advice includes consensus medium-term projections of hospitalisations and deaths produced by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling. These represent a scenario in which the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow current trends. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behaviour changes, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission.

Named day
Named day questions only occur in the House of Commons. The MP tabling the question specifies the date on which they should receive an answer. MPs may not table more than five named day questions on a single day.