Coronavirus: Disease Control

Question

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) is advised on infectious disease modelling by a working group, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M). SPI-M consists of several modelling groups, all of whom have developed their own models independently, and some have multiple models for different purposes, of which most have been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. For those models that have not yet been published in peer-reviewed journals, there is an intention to do so. Some models have complex methodologies while others are simpler, with each different approach able to provide useful insights for policy-making decisions. These independent models come from a range of United Kingdom institutions and universities and the advice from them are regarded, individually and collectively, as some of the best in the world, and the UK Government is making the most of the talented UK modelling community’s expertise through SPI-M’s consensus approach.

The stochastic version of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model CovidSIM v1.1 has not been used by SPI-M; it is a relatively simple simulation to support policy development in countries where there is less modelling capacity and capability.