To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what assessment he has made of whether there was any scenario used in routine pandemic planning where the number of critical beds would meet increased demand.
Answered on
21 April 2020
Planning for pandemics, like all civil emergencies, is based on a Reasonable Worst-Case Scenario (RWCS). The UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011 sets out a United Kingdom-wide strategic approach to planning for and responding to the demands of a future RWCS scale influenza pandemic within which 50% of the population become ill.
The 2011 Strategy recognises that, without mitigation, critical care capacity might be insufficient in some scenarios. Influenza pandemic preparedness is therefore based on a ‘defence in depth’ strategy to minimise spread of infection and treat individual cases. In addition to plans to surge National Health Service provision, including critical care, this includes measures to reduce the demand on those NHS services by reducing the risk of transmission and minimising serious illness.