To ask Her Majesty's Government what is the projected UK death toll from COVID-19
31 March 2020
The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) through its various subgroups. SAGE will continue to publish the evidence that it considers.
From modelling and current data on the outbreak, it is likely that the United Kingdom death toll will rise, but it is not possible to estimate how many individuals will die currently. This will be dependent on the implementation of and adherence to public health measures, and the success of those measures in suppressing transmission of the virus and the numbers of cases of infection.