To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, with reference to the Explanatory Memorandum to the draft Universal Credit (Transitional Protection) (Managed Migration) Amendment Regulations 2018, what methodology her Department used to estimate the number of claimants that will move from legacy benefits to universal credit through managed migration.
10 September 2018
To estimate the number of claimants that will move from legacy benefits to Universal Credit through managed migration, the Department uses a complex dynamic micro-simulation model, called INFORM.
This is based on taking a sample of the current benefit caseload, and estimating the likelihood of various changes of circumstances occurring each month, to project future volumes of Universal Credit claims and natural migrations.
The managed migration volumes are based on the numbers of people who we expect will not have had a change of circumstance, and therefore not have left their current benefit or naturally migrated to Universal Credit.