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Child Tax Credit

Question for Treasury

UIN HL9843, tabled on 24 July 2018

To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report by HMRC, Child and Working Tax Credits Statistics: Provisional Awards Geographical Analysis April 2018, published on 28 June, in relation to the policy to provide support via Child Tax Credit for a maximum of two children, whether they have undertaken an analysis to determine why the total number of affected household in the first year of the policy is substantially lower than the estimate published in their impact assessment of July 2015; and if so, what are the reasons for the difference between the projected and actual outcomes.

Answered on

2 August 2018

The difference between the estimate in the Impact Assessment and the statistic published in “Child Tax Credit and Universal Credit claimants: statistics related to the policy to provide support for a maximum of 2 children, April 2018” is due to a combination factors, including improvements to the methodology used to identify the affected population, divergences between the economic determinants used to model the policy and actual outturn, and changes in the underlying claimant population. No formal analysis of the separate impact of these factors has been made.

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