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Question for Department for Work and Pensions

UIN HL1501, tabled on 24 July 2014

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their current estimate of the total number of fatalities from mesothelioma expected in the next 30 years.

Answered on

29 July 2014

Based on the latest data available the Health and Safety Executive estimate that there will be around 58,000 mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain over the 30-year period 2013-2042.

The statistical model used suggests an uncertainty range of 53,000 to 64,000 deaths on that estimate. However, the true uncertainty range may be wider as longer-range predictions are reliant on assumptions about asbestos exposures that cannot currently be fully validated.

The annual number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain is projected to peak towards the end of this current decade.